The West Should Reconsider Total Afghan Exit

If the West is unhappy with Russia’s invasion of Crimea, it should reconsider a total exit strategy from Afghanistan to prevent another Ukraine-like scenario.

Earlier this month Russian forces stormed Crimea, a strategic peninsula which had been an integral part of Ukraine. On March 16, Crimeans voted to join Russia in a referendum that was supported by Russia and denounced as illegitimate by Western powers and Ukraine.

The rest of the world threatened to isolate and sanction Russia; however Moscow does not seem deterred and the Kremlin seems to be operating in the Soviet era.

In such a complicated scenario, what can the West do and what implications does this have for Western allies?

Here are two possible scenarios.

Another Cold War

It is not possible and perhaps unwise for the international community to get involved in another Cold War.  The first one was ugly, costly and violent in some countries such as Afghanistan.

The Cold War did result in the collapse of the Berlin Wall and perhaps in the economic hegemony of Western countries; however, it also sowed the seeds for radicalization in various countries that threatens the very core values of the West and democracy.

With the existence of an economically strong China and its improved relations with the Russians who are lax on North Korean, Iranian and Syrian issues, confronting the so-called Eastern bloc militarily would be unwise and perhaps destabilizing for world peace.

Here’s a better alternative.

West should improve common ground with Eastern bloc

The West and the Eastern bloc shares common concerns on weak states such as Afghanistan being prey to insurgency and radicalization.  They can not only pose threats to their own democratic governments; they also have become global issues causing fears of terrorism, illegal immigration, drug trafficking etc.

This is common ground where East agrees with the West. Therefore, both sides should work towards a policy that explores such common interests and use them to bridges gaps in interests between the so-called Western and a resurgent Eastern bloc.

East and West on Afghanistan

After being in Afghanistan for almost 12 years, the US-led coalition has threatened a “zero option” exit strategy from Afghanistan. This has been reiterated after Afghan President Hamid Karzai delayed signing the BilateralSecurity Agreement (BSA) with the US for preconditions he thinks should be met before signing such a document.

Congress responded with slashing 50 percent of its civilian aid to Afghanistan and a further cut-off in aid and support to the Afghan security institutions. This is premature and perhaps ill-advised.

Coming out of the Cold War as a divided country ruled by the Taliban, Afghan institutions are still weak. Democracy needs more time to mature. The Afghan economy needs more development aid and foreign investment to become self-reliant. We need to maintain achievements in education and women empowerment still needs investment and support.

As voiced in the historic consultative Loya Jirga in Kabul in Nov. 2013, most Afghans want closer relations with the world. Few want a return to the 1990s or even 1970s when Communists briefly ruled the country.

However, the “zero option” threat could push Afghanistan back to the 1990s or even earlier circumstances.

Such a scenario may provoke Russia and other regional players to reconsider its role in Afghanistan, where a considerable number of former Soviet Union loyalists still live. Whether the West wants such a situation or a Crimea type intervention is a question for Western capitals to answer.

Watching the developments in Crimea and analyzing recent Russian foreign policy moves, the West does not seem happy. Therefore, it needs to keep its patience in countries such as Afghanistan and work on common interest of building stronger states from within. Otherwise, the geopolitical loss and Cold War politics in countries like Afghanistan may be too costly for Western capitals including Washington to accept.

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This article was also published online on Sharnoffs' Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/west-afghan-exit-247/

The Quarrel on BSA - Wishes of the Afghan People

The negotiations on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the US have stalled. Afghan President Hamid Karzai says he may not sign the agreement as he wants US assurance for peace before he signs the document, while the US sees bringing peace as a long process and is threatening to pull out all troops by the end of 2014 if the BSA is not signed.  

The BSA is an important document that extends access to military bases in Afghanistan to US forces. It also establishes guidelines for the US military in post-2014 Afghanistan, after most of the international combat forces will be withdrawn.   

In general, there is eagerness among the Afghan people to sign the agreement with the US and perhaps a similar one with NATO, and continue to build on cooperative relations with the international community. This was obvious in the historic consultative Loya Jirga meeting in Kabul where unanimous support was voiced for the signature of the document. 

However, Karzai has declined to sign the agreement any time soon. Most recently he said in an interview with the Washington Post that he wouldn't sign it and perhaps his future replacement could sign the document. 

Karzai's official position is that the document should not be only a nicely worded and rhetorical document, but it should pave the way for lasting peace and security in Afghanistan. He believes Afghan peace is in the hands of the US and Pakistan. 

What he means by stating this publicly is that the US can exert sufficient diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to bring the Taliban to serious peace talks. Afghanistan believes Pakistan may have influence over the insurgent groups across the border. 

The US finds it hard to respond to reach an agreement over this with Karzai, thus negotiations have stalled.

Whether the BSA is signed or not will have significant implications for both Afghanistan and the world. Two scenarios can be predicted. One is that the BSA is not signed and US and other NATO forces leave Afghanistan for good. Another is that the BSA is left to the new president to sign.  

If the BSA is not signed and the US and allies decide to leave Afghanistan for good at the end of 2014, it would be a dangerous and perhaps an unwise decision. Afghanistan still needs international technical and financial support to establish thorough and capable forces that are able to defend Afghanistan's integrity and have a monopoly over power.  

Such a decision would also open up the country's weak institutions to potential exploitation, as happened in the 1990s, and devolve the country back to one that poses serious security threats affecting Afghanistan, its immediate neighbors and rest of the world. 

Besides, all the efforts and achievements of the country in the past decade would soon vanish as weak institutions and budding democracy still need international attention and support to mature. 

Thus, while the BSA is an important agreement, the international community should not link the complete pullout with financial support to Afghanistan.

A second scenario is that the US plans beyond the Afghan presidential elections to be held next month and has the BSA signed with the next government. This may be a better decision as most of the presidential candidates have shown interest in singing the document. 

However, in deciding this the US would risk time and there is no guarantee that a future president would be swift in signing the BSA before the end of 2014. 

It is also important for the international community to take into consideration the needs and willingness of the Afghan people to seek international commitment in building on their enormous achievements since 2002 and to create a better society in Afghanistan well beyond 2014. 

In this regard, the political upheaval and disagreements over the BSA should not be the only deciding factor on staying or leaving in Afghanistan. 

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This article was also published online on Sharnoff's Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/bilateral-security-agreement-206/

Why Afghans are ‘The Dark Horse’ in Sports

A recent article in the UAE called Afghan cricketers the ‘Dark Horse’ which can threaten any of title holders in both formats of the game.

The world outside Afghanistan does not hear much good news about Afghans. News on violent incidents, a murky insurgent war, andwomen’s rights usually make headlines across popular global media outlets. However, there are lots of positive things happening in this beautiful Central Asian country that the outside world may not know.

Among others, sports are flourishing in the country; its national players are making headlines for achievements that stun many. Football (soccer) and cricket are two sports where Afghans have proven their worth.

Afghanistan as the South Asian Soccer Champs

Not long ago, Afghanistan’s national football team was in disarray. Under the Taliban, football was banned as it did not fit well with their political agenda. Afghan youth could not imagine playing the game again in Afghanistan.

However, after the new government in 2002, Afghan soccer players re-entered the Ghazi soccer stadium in Kabul, used for prosecution just a few years ago. In less than a decade, Afghanistan went on to beat regional giants. On December 11, 2011, Afghanistan played in the final with India and lost due to a biased umpire. However, on September 11, 2013, the Afghan national team beat India in the South Asian Football Champions final to become the football champions in the region.

Watching the game live on TVs in Kabul, emotions were high among the diverse Afghan nation. Cheers and prayers accompanied every minute of the final game. Afghanistan remained undefeated in the tournament of the South Asian countries and went on to win the championship. Celebrations in Kabul were unusual. It was the first time in Afghan history that all Afghans cheered in jubilation of their national prestige. Thousands stormed out to the streets of Kabul to make it a lively event. Under the beautiful and colorful flag of Afghanistan, Afghans cheered praises of their country in unison.

Afghans Stunning the World in Cricket

Afghan cricket is another amazing story. Nearly 10 years ago, cricket did not exist in Afghanistan. Only those Afghans who had lived in Pakistan had learned it, and had practiced playing with a tennis ball wrapped in white scotch tape. Afghan refugees would come out to playgrounds in burning heat in Pakistani towns to play and enjoy the sports. In many instances, they would win from the local Pakistani teams in Pakistan.

After the Karzai government in Afghanistan, some of those Afghans returned to Afghanistan. They formed an amateur cricket team to practice the game in country. Despite minimum equipment, training and facilities, it wasn’t long until they began crushing  international teams outside their home country.

Now, the Afghan national team has not only qualified for the international world cups with the One Day International (ODI) and the newer format T20 versions of the game; they are also winning at the under 19 level and winning big.  Most recently, the Afghan under-19 national team has beaten cricket giants such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia (teams like Brazil in soccer) and is in the quarter finals of the ICC World Cup to be played this week.

The Afghan national cricket team is also a success story. They are now in Sri Lanka preparing for the Asia Cup, a regional competition including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The team is also preparing for the upcoming ICC T20 World Cup as well as the ICC ODI World Cup tournaments to be played later this year. They are expected to surprise viewers.

Afghan cricket players are described as ruthless and aggressive. They win big and win with style. A recent commentary in the United Arab Emirates called them the “Dark Horse” which can threaten any of title holders in both formats of the game.

As Afghan youth have proven themselves in the soccer and cricket fields, they are also committed to making Afghanistan a leading nation both in the region and abroad. And they can do so.

With keeping the sports a-political, open to more Afghans, and provided with the right resources and attention both from the Afghan government and internationals, it can continue to play a more successful role in further pacifying and uniting a nation that has been too long devastated by war and conflict.

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This article was also published online on Sharnoff's Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/afghans-dark-horse-sports-214/

The Bilateral Security Agreement in Afghanistan

Critics who support President Karzai’s position agree that a bilateral security agreement between the United States and Afghanistan should pave the way for lasting peace and security.

Various analysts have considered 2014 to be an important year for Afghanistan. Many things are to happen here that will define the country’s future.

In addition to the upcoming presidential elections, the US-led coalition is set to end its combat mission by the end of 2014 and reach an agreement with the Afghan government on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). In principle both sides agree on signing the agreement; however, the following explains why the pact has yet to be signed.

Fate of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA)

The BSA is an important document that extends access to military bases in Afghanistan to US forces. It also establishes guidance for the US military in post-2014 Afghanistan, after most of the international combat forces would be withdrawn.

In general, there is eagerness among the Afghan people to sign the agreement with the United States and perhaps a similar one with NATO, and continue to build on cooperative relations with the international community.

This was obvious in the historic consultative Loya Jirga in Kabul where unanimous support was voiced for the signature of the document. However, as correctly pointed out by President Karzai, Afghans also want the agreement to set a break from the past and lead to serious peace talks and genuine peace and security in Afghanistan.

Critics in Afghanistan who support President Karzai’s position agree that an Afghan-US agreement should not be only a nicely worded, rhetorical document: It should pave the way for lasting peace and security. Otherwise, the status quo will continue.

Afghans do not want the continuation of the status quo

As much as there is a general desire for a continued international presence, there is also a similar desire of a brokered diplomatic solution. The Afghan President believes that the international community can mediate such a deal.

Moreover, in light of the BSA agreement, Afghans want to continue their march towards a more prosperous and democratic society. In the past 12 years, Afghanistan’s GDP has increased, infrastructure has improved, and financial services and telecommunication has expanded significantly. The Afghan private sector development has helped in job creation and economic development, and it continues to have great potential for development and investment in mining, human resources, transportation and local production.

However, the uncertainty and insecurity poses a serious threat to these sectors and undermines all progress including improvement in women’s rights, good governance and civil society development.

The BSA therefore needs to respond to the uncertainty. It needs to guarantee that an agreement, just like the NATO agreement, should encompass and guarantee a measurable success. It should be a concise proposal for better security across Afghanistan.

If the BSA promises these results, Afghan President Karzai or his successor may sign the agreement sooner than later.

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Note: The article was also published here: http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/bilateral-security-agreement-206/

Fighting Poverty Today

Our generation has experienced unprecedented progress in the reduction of global poverty. Millions of poor have come out of poverty in India, China, Brazil, South Africa, Pakistan and other countries. However, poverty is still threatening million around the globe and is still a serious cause for conflicts, violence and instability.

I believe that advancing the following issues will have a more profound impact on poverty reduction in the decades to come:

Economic growth

In general terms, economic growth has played a critical role in mitigating global poverty. Developments in technology, access to finance and globalization have been at the core of economic growth that has enabled many countries to escape poverty. Accelerated by these factors, economic growth will continue to play an important role in poverty reduction in the years to come.

Technology

Innovations in technology have enhanced the poor’s capacity to deal with poverty. Developments in telecommunication technology such as mobile phones and online markets have enabled millions around the globe to use for building small and medium size businesses.

Technology also helps them access inputs and market their products globally. These technology improvements and affordable use in underprivileged areas will have a profound impact on enabling the poor to fight poverty.

Access to Finance

Access to small loans has accelerated economic growth in many poor societies and has helped them come out of poverty. The poor’s ability to access finance, particularly micro-finance, has helped millions in countries such as Bangladesh to start and maintain small businesses. Underprivileged people’s access to finance has helped remove the middlemen who used to charge outrageous interest on their loans to the poor.

Now, legal microfinance schemes have enabled poor women and men in rural areas to benefit from the profits of goods and services they produce more directly.

Globalization

Globalization has played an important role in economic growth for global societies. Various facets of globalization, such as improvements in communication technology including the internet, transportation hubs, the proliferation of knowledge and skills across national boundaries, the connection and remittance of the diaspora to local communities and the use of the English language, have helped many depressed societies.

Women’s Empowerment

A second major and critical development in the global poverty reduction campaign is the development and empowerment of women. Women’s empowerment has enabled them to undertake non-traditional jobs outside their homes making them more productive citizens as well as better equipped to deal with poverty.

Women’s ability to contribute more efficiently to society has eased the burden of dealing with poverty in their societies. Better access to education and other technical skills and improvements in women’s rights coupled with targeted programs promoting women’s entrepreneurship has played an important role in poverty reduction.

For Afghanistan

Afghanistan, a country grappling with poverty, needs to learn from these suggestions. The Afghan government and other stakeholders including civil society should lobby for and implement policies that targets poverty. Maintaining strong economic growth, which was nearly at 10 percent in the past decade, and improvement in Afghan women’s access to education and participation in the economy needs to continue to help transform Afghanistan into a more prosperous society.

Note: The article was also published here: http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/poverty-fight-global-249/

Perception of Corruption in Afghanistan

As an Afghan citizen living in Afghanistan, corruption has become an accepted practice for getting anything done.

A recent report from Transparency International listed Afghanistan as one of the 3 highest countries with the perception of corruption in public services. The CPI index ranked Afghanistan 175 on the scale of 1 to 175.

As an Afghan citizen living in Afghanistan, the ranking is not an exaggeration.

Corruption has become an accepted practice for getting anything done. It encompasses not only the public sector, but is also a problem within many international organizations and donors working in the country on development issues.

Both the Afghan government and non-government organizations, including the civil society, need to take serious steps to root out this demeaning issue.

Corruption has been one of the core challenges facing the Afghan government. In the past 12 years and in a post-conflict society, Afghans have been plagued by weak institutions and uncertainty.

The perception of corruption is not only an issue in the public service of Afghanistan, it has become an undisclosed and undiscussed issue in the donor programs implemented off-budget by various international contractors. Experience and discussion with various Afghans working for non-government organizations says that 15% has become a norm to be provided as kickbacks to individuals or teams working on grants or procurement in various organizations. Most of the grant units have a pool of friends that understand and agree to their demands and only those friends get contracts.

International organizations and diaspora-led NGOs exploit the weak oversight institutional capacity in Afghanistan

Being savvy in using financial tricks to obscure corruption or being “friends” of certain people in the donor community enables them to get contracts, which are usually overpriced and burdened with unreasonable administrative costs. In addition, they get the contracts easier than local organizations; any corrupt behavior in their misusing development aid goes unnoticed for the sake of mutual benefits.

Ordinary Afghans have no option but to remain weary and frustrated with the widespread corruption resulting in a minimum impact of the billions of dollars spent here in Afghanistan.

This must change. Both the Afghan government and the Afghan people, including its international partners, must commit to eradicating corruption for good. Afghans need to work with our international partners to become vigilant and accountable of the use and misuse of both public money and the donor aid provided to the country.

Getting rid of corruption is not just an ethical matter; it is also a requirement particularly in post-2014 Afghanistan where resource will be scarce and development needs remain huge.

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Note: This article was also published on Sharnoff Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/dogma-corruption-afghanistan-235/ and in the Afghanistan Times on Dec. 11, 2013.

Kabul Consults on Afghan-US Treaty in a Loya Jirga

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has commissioned a team to prepare for and organize a Loya Jirga in Kabul to consult and decide on the fate of the bilateral agreement between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the United States.

As part of public awareness about the event, colorful banners and posters can be seen across Kabul. The event planned to occur in November seeks to aid understanding, consultations, and approval of the vital security compact between Afghanistan and the United States. Will it do so?

Loya Jirga, or a Grand Council, is an organic and democratic Afghan institution and cultural event which meets to consult and make important decisions that matters to the Afghan people.

Participants in the council are de facto and elected officials from across the country that negotiate and agree unanimously on a relevant issue. Its decision is legally binding on all sides concerned.

The consultative jirga in November is important to Afghans and the world for a number of reasons.

A major issue is that consultations will lead to a collective Afghan decision on defining and agreeing to the US military presence on Afghan soil post 2014. Another reason is that the jirga will give Afghan President Hamid Karzai political legitimacy to sign the pact. In that sense, it resembles the western concept of a referendum.

The security compact between Kabul and Washington is also an unprecedented treaty. As Afghans continue to take full responsibility and ownership of their nation’s future post-2014, the treaty is essential to keep international attention on Afghanistan. It will also provide support to the Afghan government and its security establishment to evolve into a fully capable entity thwarting internal and external threats.

Moreover, the security compact is vital to avoid the devastating consequences of the Soviet-Afghan War and subsequent civil war after Russia’s withdrawal in 1989.

As a result of this tragedy, conflicting regional and geo-political interests, a lack of international attention, and a failing state helped Taliban come to power.

Thanks to present-day international re-engagement in Afghanistan, Kabul has made significant and extraordinary progress. Democracy is maturing, life expectancy has improved, major highways are paved, communication and banking have flourished, the economy is growing, and Afghan men and women are being educated in thousands of public and private schools across the country.

Afghan women, in particular, are able to contribute more productively to the development of Afghan society outside their homes. They are now in parliament, schools and hospitals.

However, much work still needs to be done.

Afghanistan lags behind many countries on many development indexes. More efforts should focus to further education, especially for women, and enable Afghans out of poverty, which breeds radicalization. To make this happen, Afghanistan requires continued international support.

The presence should improve Afghanistan’s self-reliance and reconciliation; it should help in the establishment and furthering of good relations with its neighbors and help maintaining an environment in which all Afghans continue their march towards a more pluralistic, democratic and peaceful society.

The Loya Jirga may endorse Afghan President Karzai to sign the treaty if it is really meant to achieve these goals.

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This article was also published on http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/kabul-afghan-treaty-210/. 

Afghan Prospects for Post-2014 Era

The US-led coalition forces have announced their planned withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014. To meet the deadline, many members have already started extracting their soldiers and equipment from Afghanistan.

A number of initiatives have already been undertaken as part of the transition in Afghanistan.

The Afghan National Army is taking the lead in securing Afghanistan. The coalition forces are switching to a support role by providing training, equipment and financial support. And the Afghan National Police forces are getting more professional and responsible for security in Afghan cities.

In addition to transition in security issues, Afghans are taking on more responsibilities in leading development activities.  The Afghan government is assuming more ownership in public service delivery and the private sector is doing most of the things international contractors used to do.

When the Soviet Union left, the Afghan government was weak and limited to big cities, and an ideology-driven insurgency was much stronger in the country side. Besides, unemployment was high, the economy was in a critical situation, and the central government had uneasy relations with its neighbors, like Pakistan.  The present Afghan government also grapples with similar issues. However, the situation is far less threatening than it used to be in the 1990s.

Unlike in the 1990s, Afghanistan is now constitutionally an "Islamic Republic" forestalling any organized ideological confrontations. The present Afghan government and society enjoy better international relations and support than in the 1990s. Most Western countries have established strategic partnerships with the Afghan government, outlining their commitment to supporting Afghanistan well beyond 2014.

In addition to the strategic partnership documents, Afghanistan and the US are negotiating a compact that spells out the responsibilities of the residual US military presence in Afghanistan.

Other than a few public schools and universities in 2001, Afghanistan had no private schools or investment in education. But today, Afghanistan has many private schools that complement the public education system.

Private investment in the health sector has also helped in the boom of private health facilities across the country. Some, such as the DK German Medical Diagnostic Center in Kabul, are explicitly foreign-owned, providing top quality services in Kabul.

Developments in infrastructure construction, information technology, media and communication, banking, aviation, mining, trade and financial services have been unprecedented.

Ordinary Afghans have mixed feelings about Afghanistan's future. Most recognize the mentioned developments, while they also understand that a lot more need to be done to keep the momentum going.

A taxi driver in Kabul told me that "The situation in Kabul has changed drastically. In the past, one could not go safely from east to west and paved roads did not exist. There wasn't enough food, and having a car was a luxury. But today that has changed. Ordinary people can travel freely in Kabul and many provinces of the country. More Afghans have got involved in successful private businesses."

There is a consensus both among Afghans and the international community that nobody wants a return to the 1990s. A huge amount of blood and treasure, both by outsiders and Afghans, have been spent in bringing Afghanistan to where it is now.

Many factors will have a profound impact on future stability: the conduct and perception of the upcoming presidential elections in 2014 and the parliamentary elections in 2015, improvements in Afghanistan's relations with its immediate neighbors, international attention and support for the young democracy, investment and diversity in the Afghan economy, and more continuous investment in competent and motivated young Afghan men and women.

If Afghans can stay united, they will have the hope of continuing their achievements and forging a better life post-2014.

Note: The article was also published on Global Times Chine.

Afghan Elections for the Future of Afghanistan

According to local Afghans in Kabul, a number of reasons make the presidential elections in 2014 vital to Afghan democracy. 

Most people cite that since power is highly centralized and the president is the chief executive making the ultimate decisions, many want to seek that power.

According to the Afghan Constitution, the president has the authority to veto laws, dissolve parliament when a state of emergency is announced, appoint the cabinet, and name governors for Afghanistan's 34 provinces. All report to the president.

This highly centralized hold on power makes running for the supreme office important for all in Afghanistan.

Now that current President Hamid Karzai has served two terms in office and has vowed to hold free and fair elections in which power would be democratically transferred to the next hopeful, Afghans are thinking on who to vote for as their new president.

Some genuine concerns loom in Afghans' mind as the country prepares for the 2014 elections.

Conversations with local Afghans reveal that inclusiveness, popularity and credibility of candidates, as well as transparency and acceptance of the results by all parties involved, are some of the principle challenges facing Afghan elections in 2014.

Inclusiveness becomes an issue since Afghanistan still struggles with an armed opposition.

The Taliban, although agreeing to initial negotiations in Doha, haven't yet explicitly affirmed their participation or acceptance in the upcoming elections.

Despite Afghans' enthusiasm for going to the ballot boxes, a rejection of the elections or non-participation by the Taliban may present serious security challenges, particularly in regions far from Kabul.

Another challenge that looms around the elections is that there doesn't seem to be any explicit favorite candidate.

Various names such as ex-ministers in the Karzai administration, the president's elder brother, and names from the Afghan diaspora get discussed among Afghan commentators. Some analysts would go even far beyond accusing President Karzai of wanting to prolong his tenure although this cannot be proven.

Transparency and holding free and fair elections is another challenge Afghans speak about when discussing the elections.

Although a new electoral law has been introduced that addressed some of the issues, Afghans are still concerned about the repetition of a 2010 scenario where allegations of fraud were made by all sides involved.

Wazhma Sadat, an Afghan student studying at Yale University and now working on economic development in Afghanistan, mentions that due to allegations of perceived fraud and a prevailing weak culture of accepting political loss, Afghanistan's political stability may become volatile, and the country's march toward economic development and prosperity could be stalled.

All in all, Afghan history, and particularly modern political culture, hasn't been as receptive to change as one would hope for.

Since there is a lot at stake in presidential elections in Afghanistan, legitimacy and acceptance of the results of upcoming elections can even be contested just for the sake of it.

If mismanaged and deliberate, this can create unfortunate friction and power struggle resulting in difficult circumstances for post-2014 Afghanistan.

However, if the elections are free and fair to all and accepted by all stakeholders, President Hamid Karzai will make unprecedented history if he can ensure a democratic transfer of power to the next head of Afghanistan. Whether this happens remains a question to be answered next year.

Afghan Security After US Withdrawal

The US-led coalition forces are packing-up to leave Afghanistan in or before 2014. Afghans view this withdrawal deadline with anxiety because it is reminiscent of the Soviet withdrawal during the late 80s resulting in a horrific Afghan civil war.

Afghans do not want another war starting in 2014 – instead, they want to build on their country’s many unprecedented achievements, and live in lasting peace. To be able to do so, Afghanistan needs to have fruitful relations with its neighbors, particularly Pakistan.

Modern Afghanistan finds itself cramped between the conflicting geo-political interests of India and Pakistan. The two nuclear armed states have fought direct wars, in 1948, 65, 71 and 98, to protect their interests in the region; they might do so again if required.

This hostile relation makes breathing space thinner for Afghanistan. Siding with one of them, alienates it from the other; and invites their furious resentment.  History is a proof that Afghanistan cannot afford to do so especially when it wants to have a lasting stability post 2014.

Thus, it compels one to ask how Afghanistan’s relation should look like with the regional countries, mainly its eastern neighbor post 2014? The question is difficult to answer, yet an insight analysis and conclusion of the situation could be framed to predict the future.

India in Afghanistan

Considering its underdevelopment, Afghanistan must accept aid from any international partner; including India. India is happy to provide billions in aid. It has already contributed $2 billion to Afghanistan reconstruction efforts since 2001.

This relation makes Pakistan uneasy and raises security concerns in Islamabad.

Kabul’s answer of being respected for its sovereignty in accepting aid is not sufficient enough to Islamabad for their interests and worries. Abandoning India is not in the economic interests of Afghanistan simply due to its dismal economic circumstances and its historic good relations with that country.

Afghan-Pakistan Relations

Many Afghans speak emotionally about modern Pak-Afghan relations; and a blame game scenario comes on when those relations are discussed. Afghans would blame the “wrong intentions” of its neighbor for Kabul’s issues. Many in Pakistan would point the finger back to Afghanistan for Pakistan’s contemporary problems. The blame game goes on uncovering a fundamental mistrust between the two Muslim nations that share 2,640 kilo-meters (nearly 1500 miles) long border.

A Possible Way Forward

It is in the interest of better Af-Pak ties that both countries to put a stop to the increasing mistrust. Instead, each should see each other’s development as an opportunity for their own prosperity. This is a difficult ideal situation; however, there needs to be a start somewhere to eventually reach that goal. Rather than picking sides, Afghans need to lead on how they can develop a national regional policy that uses on positive support from both the regional countries, and it does not allow for Afghanistan to be a political chessboard.

The policy should include such diplomatic approaches that turn a seemingly incompatible competition from both countries to a positive one in Afghanistan’s development. It does not allow for any of the countries to see Afghanistan as a threat, and eventually wins their respect for being an intermediary ally where the two countries can sit together discussing solutions to bilateral and regional issues. Yes, this sounds way too ideal, but not impossible.

The national policy should also point out how Pakistan, which already has $2.5 billion of annual tradewith Afghanistan, can build on its economic gains if it invests in a stable Afghan economy. Emphasis should also be directed toward Afghanistan providing the necessary linkages for connecting Pakistan to the unexplored central Asian markets and energy resources.

India should also be mindful of its gains from investing in Afghanistan’s economic sectors and a positive competition with Pakistan in Afghanistan’s development. Both Pakistani and Indian firms should be invited to compete and invest in Afghanistan’s education, particularly higher education; in investing in Afghanistan’s health sector; and in the booming construction and infrastructure development sectors.

In addition, Kabul can benefit from building positive bilateral relations with both the regional powers by increasing more cultural exchanges, sports activities, and formalized transportation services such as the Pak-Afghan bus services to build on creating genuine trust. Furthermore, recognition should be given to the free visa both Pakistan and India provide to Afghanistan. The process could be simplified and made a lot easier for both Afghans and people from the two countries coming and investing in Afghanistan. Tourism could be facilitated, and people encouraged to build on the shared culture and deep-rooted religious ties in the region.

Such positive relations can then evolve into enabling people in the two countries to discuss and resolve the contentious issue of the Pak-Afghan border (Durand Line) in a legitimate, reasonable and mutually acceptable manner.

Doing all the above sounds too idealist; however, the thinking can be a start point for developing a realistic approach to have harmonized relations among Afghanistan and the two competing nuclear nations. To help this ideal approach, international support especially from the United Nations, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the Istanbul Process could be mobilized. In addition, specific power-brokers, such as the United Kingdom and the United States, should encourage to make things work better. If done correctly, Afghanistan can avoid becoming a chessboard once again.

People in Afghanistan, as well as the people of these two nuclear states want lasting peace and development in the region. Their policy makers should respect what the masses want, and cooperate towards making it a reality which is not a rigid difficulty.