Peace in Afghanistan: The Unanswered Question of Governance

Moheb Jabarkhail

As negotiations between the United States and the Taliban moved closer to a peace agreement in 2019, optimism grew that Afghanistan's nearly two-decade-long conflict might finally be approaching an end. Following the eighth round of talks in Doha, Qatar, both sides expressed positive views about the progress made, fueling speculation that a historic agreement was within reach.

Yet beneath the optimism surrounding the negotiations lay a fundamental question with profound implications for Afghanistan's future: What kind of governance system would emerge after a peace deal?

While much attention focused on troop withdrawals, counterterrorism commitments, and ceasefire arrangements, comparatively little attention was paid to the political framework that would govern Afghanistan once a settlement was reached. For many Afghans, this issue was arguably the most consequential aspect of any peace agreement.

The United States entered Afghanistan following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, seeking to dismantle Al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban regime that had provided it sanctuary. At the time, Afghanistan was governed under the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, a system in which Mullah Mohammad Omar served as the Amir-ul-Mumineen (Commander of the Faithful) following his selection by a council of religious leaders. Although Kabul was the country's capital, political authority was largely exercised from Kandahar, the Taliban's traditional power base.

The collapse of the Taliban regime in late 2001 paved the way for a new political order. Through the Bonn Agreement and subsequent international efforts, Afghanistan began building democratic institutions based on constitutional governance. The country's new constitution, adopted in 2004 following a Constitutional Loya Jirga, established a highly centralized presidential system with elected leadership and defined terms of office.

Under this framework, President Hamid Karzai served as Afghanistan's transitional leader and subsequently completed two elected presidential terms. In 2014, power was transferred to President Ashraf Ghani following a disputed election that resulted in the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG), a political arrangement brokered with international support. The agreement introduced the position of Chief Executive Officer, creating a power-sharing structure outside the formal constitutional framework.

As peace negotiations advanced in 2019, the central debate increasingly focused on the future of Afghanistan's political system. Would the country continue under its constitutional presidential framework, or would a new arrangement emerge that incorporated elements of the Taliban's preferred Emirate model?

The distinction was significant.

Under Afghanistan's constitution, political legitimacy is derived from elections and the rule of law. Presidents were elected for fixed terms, and government authority was defined by constitutional provisions. In contrast, the Emirate model did not rely on electoral processes. Political authority would instead be vested in an Amir selected through consultation among religious and political elites, serving without the electoral mechanisms embedded in the post-2001 constitutional order.

These competing visions reflected broader disagreements about the future of the Afghan state.

President Ashraf Ghani consistently emphasized that elections and constitutional continuity were essential components of any peace process. In his Eid-ul-Adha address in August 2019, he reaffirmed that elections remained a national priority and that peace should be pursued within the framework of the constitution.

The Taliban, however, viewed the situation differently. Their priority was securing an agreement with the United States, while questions regarding Afghanistan's future political arrangements would be addressed later through negotiations with Afghan political actors. The movement also continued to reject direct negotiations with the Afghan government, arguing that it lacked legitimacy.

These opposing perspectives raised critical questions that remained unanswered.

How would Afghanistan be governed following a peace agreement? Would elections proceed as planned? How would the Taliban be integrated into national political institutions? Would the Constitution remain intact, be amended, or be replaced entirely?

The answers to these questions would ultimately determine not only the durability of any peace settlement but also the future character of the Afghan state.

For both Afghanistan and the international community, the challenge extended beyond ending armed conflict. Sustainable peace required political legitimacy, institutional stability, and a governance framework capable of commanding broad public support. Any settlement that failed to address these issues risked replacing one form of instability with another.

As negotiations continued, the future of Afghanistan depended not only on reaching a peace agreement but on defining the political order that would follow. The long-term viability of any settlement would rest on whether Afghans could reconcile competing visions of governance while preserving the legitimacy necessary for lasting peace and stability.

Afghanistan’s New Ambassador to Pakistan: Opportunity for Establishing Better Af-Pak Relations?

The National Unity Government of Afghanistan recently appointed a new ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The choice of President Ghani for this appointment is Dr. Hazrat-Omar Zakhilwal, Ex. Chief Economist and Ex. Minister of Finance.  In addition to being the Afghan Ambassador, Dr. Zakhilwal is titled to be the Afghan President’s special envoy in Pakistan.

Dr. Zakhilwal appointment for this important position says it outright that the new Afghan government values better economic and political ties with Pakistan.  To achieve this ambitious goal, Dr. Zakhilwal is better placed than any other Afghan politician.

Unlike other politicians in the previous Afghan administration, Zakhilwal has already established work-able relation with his Pakistani counterparts especially when he served as the Minister of Finance under Ex. President Karzai.  An example of the cooperation between the two countries has been Dr Zakhilwal's success in attracting cooperating response from Mr. Ishaq Dar, the Pakistani Minister for Treasury, to improve bilateral economic ties.  He succeeded in mobilizing the Pakistani government’s much needed political support for the important Central Asia-South Asia (CASA) 1300 Mega Watt electricity transmission project.  Under CASA, Afghanistan will receive a transit fee for the large amount of electricity transmitted to Pakistan for a transit fee.  This is a significant project that can promote regional integration and prosperity. 

Afghanistan’s President Ghani envisions precisely this sort of economic ties with Pakistan.  He believes that if the two countries are genuine in their relations, each can contribute significantly to the other’s economic development.  President Ghani would like to see a 100+ more CASAs between Afghanistan and Pakistan.  And for that to happen, Kabul needs a representative in Islamabad that can help create similar interest and thinking in Pakistan.  Dr. Zakhilwal, for his experience, is a good fit for this purpose.

Afghan Interest in Promoting Political Ties

President Ghani’s administration has also been trying to establish friendlier political relations with Pakistan.  Ever since coming to power in 2014, President Ghani sought support from Saudi Arabia and China, Pakistan’s geo-political allies and traveled directly to Pakistan to gather momentum for renewed trust and ties with Pakistan particularly in quelling the insurgency in Afghanistan. 

For a while the new efforts seemed working and hopes for better ties between the two countries were high.  However, due to the exposure of the surprising death of Mulla Omar, the Taliban Supreme Leader, and subsequent violence in Kabul, bilateral relations went sore and back to square one.  Since then, optimism for a different chapter in Af-Pak relations has seemed as distant as it did during the previous Afghan administration.  this is not in the interest of any of the two neighbors. 

Afghanistan has always expected Pakistan to value its relations with the democratically elected government in Kabul than other non-state groups, and to cooperatively support the war torn country’s reconstruction and development efforts.  Kabul feels this has not happened for a long time and despite numerous exhausting efforts from Kabul.

However, Dr. Zakhilwal’s appointment may be a turning point and an opportunity for generating a different response from Pakistan.  He has proven to already possess the required leadership, understanding of the context, and previous success in building trust with Pakistan.

Considering that years of instability, mistrust and violence in the Af-Pak region has had devastating geo-political and economic consequences for both the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan, the two countries should seize this renewed opportunity and utilize on it to establish the momentum for a more peaceful, integrated and successful Af-Pak region.  That in turn will contribute to prosperity and security in Afghanistan, Pakistan and beyond.

Will this happen, however, remains a big question to be answered in Islamabad.

Dealing with Poverty is Another Priority for the New Govt. in Kabul

With President Ashraf Ghani’s government finally taking hold in Kabul, it also needs to focus on dealing with Afghanistan real socioeconomic problem: poverty.

Poverty has been a serious issue in Afghan society; a larger number of Afghans live either in poverty or are at risk of falling into poverty if there was a crisis. This is the case despite Afghanistan having ample natural resources. According to the World Bank, poverty rate in Afghanistan is at staggering 38 percent. This figure has remained unchanged since 2008 despite a large sum of development aid injected to its economy.

The crippling poverty has vicious impact on Afghanistan. It has been a leading contributor to violence, political instability and radicalization especially in the rural parts of the country where majority of the Afghan people live. In the rural areas, the Afghans especially the youth live in dismal poverty having minimum access to inadequate education or employment opportunities. Such circumstances flourish ripe conditions for poverty to prosper causing further grievances in Afghan society.

Poverty has ruled Afghan society for too long now and it continues to cause troubles due to the nonexistence of a strong political will both in the previous Afghan leadership and within the international development partners active in Afghanistan, non existences of a cohesive human development plan and an effective strategy to fight poverty or focus on effective and inclusive economic development.

Now that President Ashraf Ghani is in charge and has a wealth of both experience and education in poverty eradication and human development programs, his government should prioritize eradicating poverty and related serious underdevelopment problem in Afghanistan.

This is no easy task but it is possible if there is a sincere political will to eliminate corruption, boost human capital and capacity, attract investment, use international development aid more effectively, better utilize Afghanistan's natural resources, foster trade and create a conducive environment for the private sector development. All of these efforts can contribute to better public and private sectors that can provide jobs and in turn alleviate poverty in Afghanistan.

President Ghani’s unity government should have and implement that political will and enable Afghans to break from the vicious cycle of poverty & violence and instead live in prosperity. If President Ghani can do this, he would be remembered as the savior for a country that has been stuck in vicious poverty for too long now.

Time is Ripe for a New Chapter in Af-Pak Relations

Ashraf Ghani, Afghanistan’s new president has provided hope for peace and stability to the troubled nation.

Even in his first weeks in office, President Ghani, a former World Bank technocrat and professor in leading American Universities, has embarked on sweeping reforms from tackling corruption to resolving the issues of the prisoners in Kabul’s Puli Charkhi prison. Ghani seems serious and an ideal leader for a post-conflict country such as Afghanistan where people want swift actions from public leaders and are usually frustrated by lack of action.

President Ghani has yet to nominate his cabinet and governors of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. The general perception in Afghanistan is that together with his Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, he will nominate one soon, and it could be a more technocratic one than compared to his predecessor, Hamid Karzai. Ghani’s minister selection will be important for delivering on his campaign promises and furthering the tasks he has started in Afghanistan.

Among the many policy issues facing Ghani, a major one is how he tackles Afghanistan’s troubled relations with its eastern neighbor, Pakistan.

Afghanistan and Pakistan share a long border of nearly 2,600 kilometres (1,615 miles) named as the “Durand Line.” Pakistan recognizes this line as an “international border” crossing inherited from British India; Afghanistan, however, recognizes it only as a temporary boundary that was agreed to between British India and the Afghan Emir more than a century ago. Borer disputes have resulted in serious mistrust between Kabul and Islamabad, and both sides have failed to capitalize on the enormous economic benefits they can reap from establishing cordial relations.

Hamid Karzai, the outgoing Afghan president, labeled Pakistan as one of the key stakeholders to peace and stability in Afghanistan. However, he also outlined that his nearly 20 state visits to Pakistan and many efforts failed to result in any constructive outcome.

Now that there is new leadership in Kabul and that Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is keen on contributing to a more stable region, it might be the right time for both sides to turn pages and open a new chapter in Af-Pak relations.

Unlike the past, President Ghani should take lead and propose a more compromising approach that builds trust and enables Pakistan to see more benefits in Afghan stability. One thing that President Ghani should make sure to avoid is to break from the past where most of Afghanistan’s problems are blamed on Pakistan.

Instead, President Ghani’s government should opt for a policy that recognizes the need for mutual Af-Pak relations, defies issues of mistrust and promises good will for the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This policy should also focus on promoting regional economic cooperation that in turn can foster mutual respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Pakistan’s leadership should also respect Afghan’s desire for stability and actively engage with Kabul on overcoming political and security challenges. Unlike the past, Pakistan’s strategic depth policy should seek closer economic ties with Afghanistan and understand that building better and more trustful relations with Afghanistan’s legitimate government in Kabul is better for Pakistan’s future stability.

If both Afghan and Pakistani leaders can make this shift in their foreign policies, the two Asian countries can benefit from significant economic and political relations, and collectively contribute to more prosperous societies in the region.

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This article is also published at SGV at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/af-pak-relations-401/

Afghans Successfully Conduct Run-Off Presidential Elections

Afghans once again proved they want peace and democracy to prevail in their homeland.

On June 14, nearly 7 million Afghans, 31 percent of them women, turned out to vote in the historic run-off Presidential elections in Afghanistan.

This is the first time Afghanistan is preparing for an elected president to transfer power to another candidate through the ballot box.

The fact that this election has attracted so much interest in Afghanistan and received a big voter turnout proves Afghans have come a long way in leading their nation and in defying those not wanting the democratic process to succeed.

The Election Campaigns

Afghans were left to choose from two candidates: Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani, when the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan announced in May 2014 that none of the candidates had secured 50%+1 of the total votes.

In the official election campaigns, candidates reached out to their constituencies across Afghanistan to secure votes. The candidates promised many to do(s) from restructuring the political system to establishing new provinces in the country, from building the economy and roads to improving human rights.

Media outlets were also busy. Some worked directly for broadcasting political campaigns for one of the candidates; others benefited from lucrative and colorful advertisements. However, most of the media outlets were disappointed when one of the candidates intentionally turned downed requests for a public debate with the other candidate.

The Election Day

The election-day in Afghanistan was a festive one. Despite security threats, Afghans came out in large numbers to vote. Men and women, young and the old wanted to vote and be part of the history in making in Afghanistan.

In some provinces, music accompanied the election process. Further live coverage from Afghanistan’s vibrant media outlets, the TVs in particular, made it possible for Afghans to watch the process in the comfort of their homes and be independent observers on the ballot boxes.

In the midst of all these efforts, Afghan security forces were the real heroes. They were the ones that made Afghans proud by making the day a relatively peaceful one across the country. Minor security incidents were reported but none threatened the election process. The security forces proved they are capable of keeping order in tact and they can be counted on as national heroes of this war-torn country.

Results of the Elections

Afghanistan election law requires all complaints to be attended to before partial and final results are announced. The Independent Election Commission for Complaints collects all grievances from the candidate’s group, reviews them and in light of them approves or disapprove the results of a polling station.

After all complains are addressed, the results are sent to the Independent Election Commission for announcement. The initial results of today’s elections are due on July 2 while the final results are due sometime later in July.

Afghans eagerly look forward to hearing these results and ask on both candidates to accept the results. They expect both Dr. Abdullah and Dr. Ghani to be responsible Afghan leaders that will respect the decision of the Afghan people and continue to play a stabilizing role in Afghanistan; otherwise, they risk national disapproval.

Work Waiting the New President

After President Obama has announced for the US military draw down and eventual reduction of forces to only a few hundred by end of 2016 in Afghanistan, a major job waiting a new Afghan president is to prepare for this transition.

Afghan forces still need support to be prepared in dealing with the insurgency and security threats here. A new president would also need to keep international support mainly from the US through the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) to maintain the necessary resources for this transition to be successful.

Other than the security transition, another challenge facing the new Afghan leadership is putting an end to the Taliban insurgency in the country. Afghans understand that in order for the country to maintain its achievements of the last decade, it needs viable and sustainable peace. This isn’t possible without reaching a truce with all insurgent groups including the Taliban. A new president would need to have a new approach to making this happen.

Beyond the challenges in political scenario, Afghanistan also needs to further its economic development agenda. The country still grapples with poverty, lack of investment and jobs for the youth in particular. Also, Afghanistan is faced with a declining international aid environment.

Therefore, a new leader would need to have the necessary skills and political will to better manage its internal resources. This includes ending the perception of corruption and exploring alternative resources such as trade facilitation, revenue mobilization and natural resource management to boost economic growth and development.

The Way Forward for Afghanistan

Today, Afghans once again proved they want peace and democracy to prevail in their homeland. They are not afraid to go out and vote despite numerous challenges; on the contrary, Afghans are ever resilient and committed to bringing a change and lead Afghanistan’s march towards a mature and stable democracy.

However, in order for this resilient country to build on its recent achievements and avoid relapse to a weak state vulnerable to conflicts and interventions, Afghanistan still needs strong international support mainly from Washington. Many Afghans hope this will continue well beyond 2014.

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This article was also published on Sharnoff Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/afghans-presidential-elections-331/

يوه څوکی او ۱۱ کاندیدان

يوه څوکی او ۱۱ کاندیدان

محب ارسلان

د اپریل په ۵ نیټه میلیونونه افغانان د ګواخونو ، ستونزو ، سړی او بارانی هوا سره سره د رایو ورکولو محلونو ته ورغلل او خپله رایه یی وکاروله.  دی کار دنیاوال هیران کړل، هغوی دا هیله نه درلوده چی په دومره شمیر ډیر افغانان په داسی نسبتا سختو شرایطو کی به د رایو ورکولو تلوسه او عزم ولری.  خو افغانانو دا کار وکړ او جمهور ریس کرزی ته یی دا زمینه برابره کړه چی د افغانستان په تاریخ کی لمړنی ولسمشر شی چی واک  بل کاندید ته د رایو د لاری په مصالحت امیزه توګه د قانون په چوکاټ کی انتقال کړی.

خو یوه ستونزه چی ډیرو افغانانو په دی پروسه کی تجربه کړه هغه د کاندیدانو تعدد وو.  نام خدا یولس کاندیدانو دا ادعا کړی وه چی سل زره کارتونه یی د افغانستان د ۲۴ ولایتونو څخه راټول کړی او ددوی پلویان دی.  په دی یولس کاندیدانو کی داسی څهری هم راښکاره شوی چی نه خو یی علمی او نه یی هم ملکی اهلیت درلوده.  د نتایجو د پایلو د اعلان وروسته دا جوته شوه چی یا خو دوی چا تیر وستی وو او یا خو هم دوی د افغانانو د یوه موټی کیدو سره نه علاقه درلوده او نه یی پکی خپلی شخصی ګټی لیدلی.

د نوموړو کاندیدانو یواځینی لاسته راوړنه داوه چی د خلکو رایی  یی تقسیم کړی او پری نښودل چی د مخکښو کاندیدانو څخه یی یو هم د ۵۰ فیصدو څخه د زیاتو رایو اکثریت لاسته راوړی.  خو یوه ګټه یی وکړه او هغه داوه چی پر دی متیقن شول چی په واقعی ډول د خلکو په منځ کی د دوی محبوبیت څو فیصده دی. 

د نوموړو فیصدو په پام کی نیولو سره افغانانو باید یو درس زده کړی وی او هغه دادی چی په راتلونکی کی یواځی څو کاندیدانو ته د نامزدی شرایط برابر کړی او د یوی مړی ډوډی، څادر او یا خولی په بدل کی خپل کارتونه داسی کاندیدانو ته ورنکړی چی په سلو کی یی د ګټلو امکان یو فیصد هم نه وی.  که نه د همدی ځل ټاکنو د تجربی په اساس به په راتلونکی کی هم خپل وجدان ته او هم خپل  خالق ته ملامت وی. 

افغانستان یو غریب ملک دی، هغه دارای چی اوس د ټاکنو په دوهم پړاوو لږول کیږی ، هغه باید د افغانانو د ژوند په ښه کولو لږیدلی وای .  اوس نو قضاوت زمونږ دی چی دغه اخوا دیخوا کاندیدان څومره د افغانانو او یا افغانستان  سوکالی ته مخلص وو؟  

افغانستان بعد از ۲۰۱۴ 

محب ارسلان

امریکا و متحدین آن پلان خروج نیروهای نظامی خود را ازافغانستان اعلام نموده و تعداد زیادی از آنها شروع به خروج نیروها و کارزارهای نظامی خود را کرده اند. برای بدست اوردن این هدف و تطبیق برنامه واگذاری قدرت به  افغانها چندین برنامه ها روی کار هستند.

یک برنامه واگذاری مسولیت امنیتی به نیرو های افغان است.  حالا اردوی افغانستان عملیات نظامی را مستقیما رهبری میکنند و نظامیان خارجی در این زمینه نیروی های افغان را با امکانات مالی، تخنیکی و وسایل همکاری مینمایند.  همچنان پولیس ملی افغان مسلکی شده اند و مسولیت امنیت را در شهرهای افغانستان بدوش دارند.

در پهلوی اخذ مسولیت امنیتی و نظامی، افغانها مسولیت رهبر کردن کارهای انکشافی را نیز بدوش خود گرفته اند.  دولت افغانستان ملکیت برنامه های انکشافی و عامه را میگیرد و سکتور خصوصی خدمات و کار ها را انجام میدهد که کمپنی های خارجی ان را در گذشته انجام مینمودند.  

مقایسه حالات امروزی با حالات سال های ١٩٩٠

بعضی ها شرایط افغانستان را ممثل شرایط میدانند که شوروی ها  از افغانسان بیرون رانده شدند.  آن زمان دولت افغانستان ضعیف بود و با یک شورش قوی ایدولوژیک روبرو بود، بیکاری در بین جوان ها زیاد بود و حالات کلی اقتصادی بد بود.  همچنان روابط افغانستان با کشور های همسایه به خصوص با پاکستان وضیعت بد داشت.  

دولت فعلی افغانستان نیز با چنین چالشها روبرو است، اما شرایط امروزی کشور با شرایط سال های ١٩٩٠ به کلی متفاوت است.

امروز قانون اساسی افغانستان این کشور را یک جمهوری اسلامی خوانده است.  پس هیچ کدام دلیلی برای شورش علنی ایدولوژیک وجود ندارد.  همچنان  دولت فعلی افغانستان در انزوای بین المللی قرار ندارد.  امروز افغانستان با تعداد کثیر از کشورهای غربی و منطقه روابط خوب دارد و با آنها قراردادهای ستراتیژیک را امضا نموده اند.  این قرار دادها تداوم روابط افغانستان را با کشورهای مهم جهان تعریف نموده و تعهد آنها را به افغانستان بعد از سال ٢٠١٤ م  واضح میسازد. علاوه بر این قرارداد های ستراتیژیک، افغانستان در حال گفتگو  در مورد قرارداد امنیتی دو جانبه با ایالات متحده امریکا است.  این قرار داد برای تداوم روابط افغانستان با ایالات متحده امریکا و باقی ماندن یک تعداد محدود نظامیان آنها در افغانستان لازمی است.  لویه جرگه افغانها به ریس جمهور کرزی مشوره داد تا این قرارداد را با در نظرداشت منافع ملی افغانستان امضا نماید.  با وجود چنه زنیهای دوامدار بین کرزی و ایالات متحده امریکا، بعید نیست که این سند به امضا برسد و زمینه بودن نظامیان امریکایی  را در افغانستان بعد از سال ۲۰۱۴م در یک چارچوب دوجانبه قانونی سازد.

تغیریات دیگر نیز امروز مشاهده میشود که در سالهای ١٩٩٠ تصور آن هم نمی شد.  در آن زمان تنها چند پوهنتون های محدود دولتی وجود داشت و آنها هم چندان امکانات را نداشتند.  امروز در پهلوی دانشگاهای دولتی،  به صدها موسستا تعلیمی و تحصیلی خصوصی محصلین افغان را آموزش میدهند.  سیستم خصوصی صحی هیچ موجود نداشت، امروز به صدها شفاخانها و کلینیک های خصوصی در پهلوی شفاخانهای دولتی فعال هستند و خدمات صحی را به افغانها فراهم میسازند.  بعضی از این ادارت خارجی هستند که نمونه آن کلینیک جرمن در شهر نو کابل است که خدمات را به سطح بین المللی به افغانها ارایه مینماید. همچنان انکشافات که در سکتور تعمیر زیربناها، رشد تکنالوژی معلوماتی و مخابراتی، بانکداری، هوانوردی، تجارت و خدمات ترانسپورتی مشاهده میشود، در تاریخ افغانستان بی نظیر میباشند.  

نظر افغانها در مورد تحولات فعلی

افغانهای عادی این تحولات را نادیده نمی گیرند.  آنها میدانند که پیشرفت افغانستان زمینه کار را مساعد ساخته و تاثیر مثبت را بالای زندگی آنها داشته است.  با یک تکسی ران کابل که در مورد تحولات و پیشرفتهای افغانستان صحبت میکردم برایم گفت که اصلاً افغانستان امروز با سال های ١٩٩٠ قابل مقایسته نیست.  امروز یک افغان فرصتهای زیادی را برای کسب تعلیم و تربیه دارد، میتواند به راحت به بسیاری از ولایات کشور و یا هم بیرون از کشور سفر نماید.  در سالهای ١٩٩٠ مردم نمی توانست تا از شرق به غرب کابل بروند.   

با این که انتخابات پیشرو ریاست جمهوری و بعضی از مسایل دیگر افغانها را برای اینده خود و کشور شان نگران میکند ، اما هیچ کدام آنها خواهان حالات سال های ١٩٩٠ و یا برگذشت به آن نیستند.  افغانها میدانند که هم خود شان و هم بعضی از خارجی ها خون و ثروت خود را برای ایجاد حالات امروزی صرف نموده اند و به آن هرج میگذارند.

 افغانها میخواهند که انتخابات ارام را داشته باشند، با دنیا روابط نزدیک داشته باشند، با همسایه گان روابط خوب به اساس احترام متقابل داشته باشند و به صورت کلی حرکت خود را به سوی یک افغانستان مرفع و ارام ادامه دهند.  اما یک موضوع مهم تعریف و تسریع کننده تمام این خواسته  ها بعد از سال ٢٠١٤ م میباشد:  آن موضوع تقویه اتحاد ذات البینی بین تمام اقوام و اقشار افغان است.  

پس بحیث یک افغان (پسر و یا دختر این سرزمین)، باید در محدوده صلاحیت و مسولیت خود برای اتحاد افغانها و تقویه روحیه ملی مسولیت خود را شناساسی و اجرا نمایم.

Afghan Elections: A Proof of Success in Afghanistan

As Afghanistan continues to transition towards democracy, it is important for the world to realize that intervention has not failed.

Afghan men line up for the registration process before they cast their votes at a polling station in Kabul. Credit: AP

In the 12 years that the West has spent in Afghanistan since 2002, some analysts are now calling the mission a total failure and insist on a complete withdrawal.

Their argument is that the West cannot “impose” a democratic governing system on a traditional Afghan society, which they refer to as tribal and resentful to change.

Media coverage of Afghanistan has disheartened Western opinion. Most do not know about other developments in the country. A closer examination reveals that the mission is not a failure, but a worthy effort for enduring freedom.

Afghanistan post-Taliban

When the Taliban took over Afghanistan, the country had plunged into a chaotic war zone. Warring factions that once stood together with Western and regional support against the Soviet Army and Communist regime in Kabul had turned on each other making living in Afghanistan practically impossible.

Fueled with regional interventions and international politics of the Cold War, systematic radicalization was breeding in Afghanistan in such that tolerance for human dignity, Afghanistan’s cultural heritage and women rights had vanished.

The situation continued until the unfortunate 9/11 events when the world realized committing a major mistake by leaving Afghanistan in the 1980s after the withdrawal of the Soviet Union to the mercy of the gunmen and bad regional politics.

Afghanistan post-Karzai

After the Bonn Agreement in 2002, Afghanistan regained recognition. The country started a difficult march towards instituting a new constitution, forming a transitional government and then holding elections to nominate their first democratic leadership in more than 30 decades. All went well.  Today Afghanistan has a progressive constitution in the region; and elections have been held successfully.

Furthermore, international development aid coupled with currency and private sector licensing reforms has helped the country to rebuild its economy. Economic growth jumped and remained at nearly 10 percent during the last decade; it is still growing.

For instance, Afghanistan now has many commercial banks, private schools and universities, a vibrant telecommunication sector, paved roads, and a functioning national army and police force.

Looking towards the future, Afghanistan still has great potential for becoming a transportation hub between Central and South Asia; the Middle East and China; and for becoming a vibrant explorer and exporter of its abundant natural resources.

In addition, more Afghans including women are going to school and vocational institutions resulting in a new and young natural resource for the country that will capitalize on new opportunities. The country’s other sectors such as agriculture, health and education, carpets and minerals provides huge investment opportunities to investors all over the world. In a decade or so and good management from Afghan leadership, these sectors would lead to Afghanistan become independent of foreign aid and able to pay its own bills.

Security has improved. Afghan security institutions have become more professional and have taken the responsibility for keeping Afghan streets safer. Afghans are ever resilient to continue with these developments and further transform the country to a more prosperous one in the region.

Recent Afghan Elections

Afghans went to polls on April 5 to vote for a new president and members of the provincial councils across Afghanistan. Pre-election threats of violent incidences did not scare Afghans. The atmosphere in Kabul in the last week before the elections was sober with many in-country foreigners opting to leave for Dubai, Delhi or even Washington to mitigate security risks.

On April 5, however, Afghans stunned the world.

They came out in huge numbers all across the country to be part of making history by giving President Hamid Karzai the opportunity to become the first elected Afghan president to transfer political power to the next presidential hopeful through the ballot box.

Afghans also proved that they want the ballots to rule the country, not bullets anymore. More than 7 million Afghans of the nearly 12 million registered voters came out vote. The polling day was a festive national celebration for all Afghans. Afghan security establishments provided security to voters; it was an Afghan effort for Afghans. No major security incident was allowed to happen.

Election results are expected in a couple of weeks after the election commission has addressed all concerns. An important lesson has been that unlike other war-stricken countries or other countries in the region, Afghans value democracy and value the process to elect their leadership through the ballot box.

Moving Forward

Entering the transitional decade in Afghanistan, it is important for the world to realize that their intervention in Afghanistan is not a failure.

It is vital to understand that Afghans have a solution and that they want a more pluralistic, democratic society. Most Afghans eye on a model country where law rules and Afghan women are also an integral part of the development processes in the country.

However, it’s equally important to understand that Afghanistan still needs international engagement and support to sustain these mutual achievements. A continued so-called light footprint engagement accompanied with sound investment and assistance to the country will also be an important to realize and build on the sacrifices of the hundreds of men and women who have fallen on the way to bringing peace to the country at the heart of Asia.

The West Should Reconsider Total Afghan Exit

If the West is unhappy with Russia’s invasion of Crimea, it should reconsider a total exit strategy from Afghanistan to prevent another Ukraine-like scenario.

Earlier this month Russian forces stormed Crimea, a strategic peninsula which had been an integral part of Ukraine. On March 16, Crimeans voted to join Russia in a referendum that was supported by Russia and denounced as illegitimate by Western powers and Ukraine.

The rest of the world threatened to isolate and sanction Russia; however Moscow does not seem deterred and the Kremlin seems to be operating in the Soviet era.

In such a complicated scenario, what can the West do and what implications does this have for Western allies?

Here are two possible scenarios.

Another Cold War

It is not possible and perhaps unwise for the international community to get involved in another Cold War.  The first one was ugly, costly and violent in some countries such as Afghanistan.

The Cold War did result in the collapse of the Berlin Wall and perhaps in the economic hegemony of Western countries; however, it also sowed the seeds for radicalization in various countries that threatens the very core values of the West and democracy.

With the existence of an economically strong China and its improved relations with the Russians who are lax on North Korean, Iranian and Syrian issues, confronting the so-called Eastern bloc militarily would be unwise and perhaps destabilizing for world peace.

Here’s a better alternative.

West should improve common ground with Eastern bloc

The West and the Eastern bloc shares common concerns on weak states such as Afghanistan being prey to insurgency and radicalization.  They can not only pose threats to their own democratic governments; they also have become global issues causing fears of terrorism, illegal immigration, drug trafficking etc.

This is common ground where East agrees with the West. Therefore, both sides should work towards a policy that explores such common interests and use them to bridges gaps in interests between the so-called Western and a resurgent Eastern bloc.

East and West on Afghanistan

After being in Afghanistan for almost 12 years, the US-led coalition has threatened a “zero option” exit strategy from Afghanistan. This has been reiterated after Afghan President Hamid Karzai delayed signing the BilateralSecurity Agreement (BSA) with the US for preconditions he thinks should be met before signing such a document.

Congress responded with slashing 50 percent of its civilian aid to Afghanistan and a further cut-off in aid and support to the Afghan security institutions. This is premature and perhaps ill-advised.

Coming out of the Cold War as a divided country ruled by the Taliban, Afghan institutions are still weak. Democracy needs more time to mature. The Afghan economy needs more development aid and foreign investment to become self-reliant. We need to maintain achievements in education and women empowerment still needs investment and support.

As voiced in the historic consultative Loya Jirga in Kabul in Nov. 2013, most Afghans want closer relations with the world. Few want a return to the 1990s or even 1970s when Communists briefly ruled the country.

However, the “zero option” threat could push Afghanistan back to the 1990s or even earlier circumstances.

Such a scenario may provoke Russia and other regional players to reconsider its role in Afghanistan, where a considerable number of former Soviet Union loyalists still live. Whether the West wants such a situation or a Crimea type intervention is a question for Western capitals to answer.

Watching the developments in Crimea and analyzing recent Russian foreign policy moves, the West does not seem happy. Therefore, it needs to keep its patience in countries such as Afghanistan and work on common interest of building stronger states from within. Otherwise, the geopolitical loss and Cold War politics in countries like Afghanistan may be too costly for Western capitals including Washington to accept.

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This article was also published online on Sharnoffs' Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/west-afghan-exit-247/

The Quarrel on BSA - Wishes of the Afghan People

The negotiations on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the US have stalled. Afghan President Hamid Karzai says he may not sign the agreement as he wants US assurance for peace before he signs the document, while the US sees bringing peace as a long process and is threatening to pull out all troops by the end of 2014 if the BSA is not signed.  

The BSA is an important document that extends access to military bases in Afghanistan to US forces. It also establishes guidelines for the US military in post-2014 Afghanistan, after most of the international combat forces will be withdrawn.   

In general, there is eagerness among the Afghan people to sign the agreement with the US and perhaps a similar one with NATO, and continue to build on cooperative relations with the international community. This was obvious in the historic consultative Loya Jirga meeting in Kabul where unanimous support was voiced for the signature of the document. 

However, Karzai has declined to sign the agreement any time soon. Most recently he said in an interview with the Washington Post that he wouldn't sign it and perhaps his future replacement could sign the document. 

Karzai's official position is that the document should not be only a nicely worded and rhetorical document, but it should pave the way for lasting peace and security in Afghanistan. He believes Afghan peace is in the hands of the US and Pakistan. 

What he means by stating this publicly is that the US can exert sufficient diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to bring the Taliban to serious peace talks. Afghanistan believes Pakistan may have influence over the insurgent groups across the border. 

The US finds it hard to respond to reach an agreement over this with Karzai, thus negotiations have stalled.

Whether the BSA is signed or not will have significant implications for both Afghanistan and the world. Two scenarios can be predicted. One is that the BSA is not signed and US and other NATO forces leave Afghanistan for good. Another is that the BSA is left to the new president to sign.  

If the BSA is not signed and the US and allies decide to leave Afghanistan for good at the end of 2014, it would be a dangerous and perhaps an unwise decision. Afghanistan still needs international technical and financial support to establish thorough and capable forces that are able to defend Afghanistan's integrity and have a monopoly over power.  

Such a decision would also open up the country's weak institutions to potential exploitation, as happened in the 1990s, and devolve the country back to one that poses serious security threats affecting Afghanistan, its immediate neighbors and rest of the world. 

Besides, all the efforts and achievements of the country in the past decade would soon vanish as weak institutions and budding democracy still need international attention and support to mature. 

Thus, while the BSA is an important agreement, the international community should not link the complete pullout with financial support to Afghanistan.

A second scenario is that the US plans beyond the Afghan presidential elections to be held next month and has the BSA signed with the next government. This may be a better decision as most of the presidential candidates have shown interest in singing the document. 

However, in deciding this the US would risk time and there is no guarantee that a future president would be swift in signing the BSA before the end of 2014. 

It is also important for the international community to take into consideration the needs and willingness of the Afghan people to seek international commitment in building on their enormous achievements since 2002 and to create a better society in Afghanistan well beyond 2014. 

In this regard, the political upheaval and disagreements over the BSA should not be the only deciding factor on staying or leaving in Afghanistan. 

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This article was also published online on Sharnoff's Global Views at http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/bilateral-security-agreement-206/